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Head of Handicapping's Blog
Welcome to Phil Smith's Blog. I am Head of Handicapping at the British Horseracing Authority and I will be updating this page every so often with my thoughts on key issues in the handicapping world.
You can also check out the weekly handicappers blog for all the latest updates from the team.
CARRUTHERS BACK IN THE BIG TIME
In 2009/10 I loved Carruthers. All handicappers would have as he was so consistent and I used him as my "marker horse". I had him on 155 after he beat Big Fella Thanks at Newbury in December 2009. I then based the Cotswold Chase around his 155 with Taranis, the winner running to 161.
In the Gold Cup, Imperial Commander (185) beat him by thirty lengths and he then ran a corker in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree, finishing just over three lengths behind What A Friend, who went in to the race on 159. It all fitted so perfectly that year.
2010/11 did not go so well. He was beaten just over twenty lengths in good handicaps at Ascot and Haydock and was sixth in the Hennessy. For whatever reason he did not appear to be as good as he had been the previous year, although he was still very consistent. As a result I dropped him 9 lb to 146.
The rest is history. His first run of 2011/12 was encouraging but again he didn't appear to quite get home, thus the application of a tongue strap clearly indicated in the race card for the Hennessy. The first six in the race were covered by around one and a half seconds so I was pretty pleased with the outcome especially as my "marker horse" became a "winning horse".
I have put him up 6 lb to 152 as a result and he will carry 11st 3 lb in the Coral Welsh National as the top weight will be Neptune Collonges, who I have dropped 7 lb from 168 to 161 after he failed to make any impact here.
KAUTO SHOWS HE CAN STILL HACK IT AT THE TOP LEVEL
When you attend upwards of 90 race meetings a year it takes something special to stir you to clap and cheer as a "neutral" Handicapper but I was thrilled by Saturday's "comeback" win from Kauto Star. The non Kauto highlights in my career have been Best Mate's third Gold Cup, Denman's second Hennessy win, Don't Push It's John Smith Grand National success and Zenyatta at Santa Anita in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
On Saturday Kauto Star provided me with a third moment of utter excitement and awe to rival regaining his Gold Cup and his victory by a distance in the King George. On Sunday after reviewing the video a few times it was my task to put a figure on his performance. To base the race through Diamond Harry (166) would have got Kauto Star to 184, which was possible and Long Run to 176 which was also possible but would have meant promoting Weird Al by 10lbs. to 174. I just could not have Weird Al getting over the magical 170 barrier for being beaten 10 lengths back in third so that possibility was discarded.
It seemed prudent to assume that Weird Al had replicated the 164 he achieved when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby a few weeks ago. This had Long Run running to 166 which was 16lbs. below his Gold Cup winning performance. As a result Kauto Star performed to 174 which coincidentally was the same figure he recorded at Haydock a couple of years ago when he just edged out Imperial Commander.
Long Run was not at his best but it would be folly to write him off as 166 was still 4lbs. higher than his debut run last season when he finished third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Just as in that contest he pulled in the early part of the race and made jumping errors thanks to the pace set by Kauto Star. Nevertheless he still stayed on to be beaten only 8 lengths whereas coming out of the back straight it appeared he might be about to be thrashed.
I was also taken with the run of Diamond Harry who was going as well as anything coming out of the back straight and who will strip a lot fitter next time. I have left his rating on 166 even though he only performed to 156 in this race. Time For Rupert I have dropped to 156 which was his performance figure behind Weird Al in the Charlie Hall. Connections now have the handicap option for his next race if they want it.
But what of Kauto Star? This was the 18th time in his career that I have him performing at 170+ and he also has two 169 performances on his c.v. as well. So he has recorded 20 performances at 169+ which is more than any horse in the modern era. What happened to the often written suggestion a few years ago that French bred horses don't last?
My other two races on the Haydock card were also of great interest although nothing like as emotional. Neptune Equester (138) has almost certainly now done enough to get a run in the John Smith's Grand National next April after he outstayed Morning Moment (123) whose jumping was brilliant in the 3 mile 4 furlongs handicap chase.
One of the most difficult jobs we have is trying to decide how to rate horses that have been off the track for a long time. In general we drop them BUT if their form has worked out well during their absence we will probably leave their rating alone and see how they go on their comeback run. The finish of the three mile handicap chase was fought out between two horses who had been absent for a total of 1184 days, Cappa Bleu and Tamarinbleu. When re-assessing Cappa Bleu I discovered that I had rated him 148 after his win in the 2009 Foxhunters chase at Cheltenham but he then lost his way. I took 8lbs. off him as that is the average amount a horse goes up for winning a handicap. My thinking was if he could now replicate his Foxhunters run he would have a chance of winning. If I had left him on 148 he would have had to run to about 156 to win at Haydock which was unlikely after time off and a poor profile when he was last in action.
Coincidentally I did exactly the same with Tamarinbleu dropping him from 148 to 140 for the Haydock race. Imagine my satisfaction when" Les Bleus" fought out a thrilling finish in the last at Haydock with only a head between them at the line. Cappa' is now on 147 and Tamarin' on 145. I called the head 2lbs. as I felt Evan Williams' horse was idling near the finish. It also means that Tamarinbleu can still run in veterans' chases carrying top weight which will be an attraction to racegoers. I have to say I was quite proud of that result.
Just to show that dropping horses for absence is not routine, I did not drop Painter Man for being off the track for 17 months as the form of his third at Stratford had worked out amazingly well as the first, second and fourth had all subsequently won and were now considerably higher than when they ran against Painter Man. Technically through them he could have been higher but we never put horses up after a long absence but by leaving Painter Man relative to the horses he ran against last time who have all gone up, he has in effect received a drop.
Most of the time trainers will email or phone us when they have a horse ready to return after injury or illness so they can plan a programme. Just occasionally they don't and make assumptions about what we might do and end up being disappointed that we have to rule them out of a race they had targeted for its return run.
So far this week, I attended a reception at the Hennessy offices in London on Monday evening. They have been sponsoring the great race at Newbury for 55 years. Amazing! Tuesday is work on the draft ratings of mile and a quarter and mile and a half horses for the World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings conference in Hong Kong next month. Wednesday is another trip to London to attend a meeting of the Flat Race Panel. Thank goodness for Thursday when I can do some domestic chase handicapping.
Friday and Saturday I am at Newbury for their big meeting. It doesn't stop at this time of year. Sunday and Monday will be catch up on reassessing this week's 2 mile 4.5 furlongs + chases. I normally do the 3 miles+ chases but we have a member of the team on holiday. It's not all work though as on Friday evening I am going to my colleague Matthew Tester's house for dinner. He is a great cook and wine expert. It should just get me straight for the big race on Saturday.
POST ECLIPSE BLOG 2011
6th July 2011
For most of the summer I am responsible for 10 furlong to 12 furlong Class 1 to 4 flat races. As a result I had to reassess last Saturday's Coral Eclipse Stakes. It was 31 years ago that I attended my first Coral Eclipse. I fully expected the three year old, Hello Gorgeous to win that day but despite Joe Mercer's best efforts he could not quite get to the year older Ela-Mana-Mou and went under by half a length. On the way home on the train I listened to Borg beating McEnroe in the Mens' Singles Final at Wimbledon on my transistor radio.
In those days 3 year olds received 13lbs. weight for age and two horses from that age group took on Ela Mana Mou in a field of six. Nowadays 3 year olds only receive 11lbs weight for age over 10 furlongs in early July and this year there wasn't a horse from that age group to take on the older horses. You might think three year olds are somehow disadvantaged when taking on their elders at present. I will try to suggest otherwise later.
 Hello Gorgeous was rated 126 at the end of 1980 in the International Classifications and Ela Mana Mou had a performance figure of 127 in the race although he improved to his end of year 130 when winning the King George later in the month. This year So You Think went into the race rated 126 both from his Australian form in 2010 and his European form this summer. He is currently published on 126 in the list of World's Leading Horses. Workforce was rated 128 in the Arc last year and I gave him a 124 performance figure on his reappearance in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. Sri Putra was on 116 from the Prince Of Wales's Stakes and it was also my level for him in last year's Eclipse and Glorious Stakes.
The race seems to fit remarkably well. If So You Think performs to 126 then Workforce has done a 125 as he was half a length behind. This is perfectly reasonable as he is probably slightly better at further. Workforce beat Sri Putra by 0.92 seconds which works out at around 5.2 lengths, rounded down to 5 lengths by the judge. Over 10 furlongs we work on 1.75 pounds per length so Workforce gave Sri Putra a 9lbs beating. Thus Sri Putra performed to 116. It is very rare for a race to work out as well as this and using the Handicappers' maxim "keep it simple, stupid" I have left So You Think and Sri Putra on 126 and 116 respectively. I have also left Workforce on 128 and look forward to him replicating or bettering that figure when he next runs over 12 furlongs.
At Newmarket a couple of Fridays ago, one of our top trainers said to me that in his opinion it was difficult for a 3 year old to beat the older horses at my distances until the end of July. When no three year old turned up in the Eclipse I was worried that he might be right. As a result I have researched all of my handicaps over the last 10 days when 3 year olds have taken on their elders with the following results.
They have met in 12 races with a total of 119 runners. 3 year olds have provided 35 of the runners and older horses have provided 84 of them. Amazingly the three year olds have won exactly half of these races with only 29% of the runners. The general public appear to have been taken in by the myth of the three year olds being disadvantaged at present as the starting prices of the winners have been 16/1, 6/1, 9/2, 8/1, 6/1 and 9/1.
I have also researched the record of three year olds in the Coral Eclipse since the allowance 3 year olds received from the weight for age scale was changed at the end of the season following Nashwan's victory in the 1989 edition. In that time, 7 three year olds have won the Eclipse in 22 renewals. This constitutes a strike rate of 31.8% and they have provided 30.5% of the runners. This is almost exactly what you would expect from an effective weight for age scale. Well done Admiral Rous and Geoffrey Gibbs! Come on trainers, let's see some quality three year olds in next year's Eclipse. They really aren't disadvantaged by the weight for age scale at this time of year.
POST ROYAL ASCOT BLOG 2011
21st June 2011
Here are my thoughts on the non 2 year old Pattern races and my handicaps through a great week...
 Queen Anne – Stunning performance by Canford Cliffs (127) who became first horse since 1980 to win three different races at Royal Ascot in successive years. Who was the last one and in what races? Goldikova not helped by losing momentum by having to switch around pacemaker. Did anyone else notice that? As for Peslier putting up 2lbs. overweight, unbelievable! Trainers everyday complain to us about having put up a horse too much in a handicap yet they (not just Monsieur Head) have an amazing tolerance when their jockey has a cavalier attitude to overweight arriving at the course too late to spend enough time in the sauna.
King's Stand – Prohibit (117) put up a similar performance to last year's winner, Equiano. The first of two super placed performances in a week from Star Witness who had the race been run in Australia would have had an extra pound weight for age. At this point in the week high numbers were favoured on the straight course with the first four home coming from double figure draws.
St James's Palace - Frankel (122). Amidst all the comment about the ride, don't forget that the horse still posted the same performance figure as Canford Cliffs did in the race last year. What is the point of running a pacemaker when he goes off like Rerouted did? If the race was the 9.20 from Wolverhampton on a Saturday, questions would have been asked about the ethics of the ride.
Jersey – Strong Suit (116). Appears to have flown under the radar after so many stand out performances during the week but he has bounced back to a level even higher than his smart two year old form after his breathing operation. By two pounds the best Jersey winner over the last six years. Can he be the next horse to win three different races at Royal Ascot in consecutive years? None for over thirty years and maybe two will come along in consecutive years.
Windsor Forest – Lolly For Dolly (112). Not the first time and not the last during the week when a horse took the lead, in this case Chachamaidee, looking like the winner only to be overtaken near the finish. This was almost certainly caused by the strong headwind which was prevalent all week.
 Prince of Wales's – Rewilding (127). At the International Handicappers meeting in Hong Kong last December, I had a real fight to persuade my colleagues to accept that his Great Voltigeur performance was worthy of 121 as he subsequently flopped in the St Leger. His win in Dubai gave me some vindication and helped by another abysmal piece of pacemaking he has shown himself to be a class act.
Ribblesdale – Banimpire (111). Such a tough filly to win twice in four days in different countries. Jockeys hardly ever get praise for a ride when they don't win but I thought Richard Hughes was brilliant on the runner up and nearly stole the race on an inferior filly. Look out for the third, Dorcas Lane (100) who replicated her Listed win at Newmarket despite hating the ground.
Gold Cup – Fame And Glory (120). Almost a carbon copy of Yeats as he won a Coronation Cup before trying the marathon Gold Cup for the first time and won easily. He has a bit to go before showing himself in the same league as Ardross however as Fame And Glory has been fifth and sixth in the Prix De L'Arc de Triomphe whereas Ardross was second. It just shows that distance is not necessarily a barrier to a class animal.
Tercentenary – Pisco Sour (108). A difficult race to rate, despite using Slumber (101) who was third in the Chester Vase and won the Blue Riband at Epsom as a consistent guide. The trainer believes I have got the winner too low and he may be right but I didn't want to take Specific Gravity out of 0-100 handicaps for finishing fourth. It makes Pisco Sour the lowest rated winner of this race in the last 4 years.
 King George V – Brown Panther (106) The most embarrassing handicap of the week and it had to be mine. Brown Panther stormed home off a mark of 91. I had put him up 10lbs after his win at Haydock when he was denied a clear run but the placed horses have both run moderately since. Before that I had put him up 8lbs. for winning at Chester by a neck. Fair play to the trainer he has improved the colt by 33lbs. since the start of the season. Remember he won his only start as a 2 year old so he has been campaigned very honestly and connections deserve their success.
King Edward VII – Nathaniel (111) Obviously a good St Leger trial but to my mind there are more good races to be won with Nathaniel at 1.5 miles as he is not short of pace. The Chester Vase form looks pretty good now. Thank goodness connections didn't wait for a handicap when he was rated 91 just 6 weeks ago. Look out for the fourth and fifth from this race in nice races later in the year.
Coronation – Immortal Verse (114). The lowest rated winner of the race in the last 6 years but inevitably so given her style of last to first racing, (similar to Pour Moi who I know will prove better than 122 eventually). By now the rain had really got into the ground and it was unsurprising that the race was dominated by the Collet family fillies who relish it.
Wolferton – Beachfire (107). As the second horse Lost In The Moment had finished second off 100 only 6 days earlier and was due to go up 4lbs. I took the view that he ran the same race as he had at Chester. As a result my major decision was what to call Beachfire's superiority over him. The winning distance was 2.25 lengths which over this distance would be worth 4 pounds but I took the view that the winner had a little in hand so called his superiority 5lbs. Hence 98 + 4 +5 = 107. The knock on effect would be that Waydownsouth (3rd) would run off 101 not 99 if he were to come back for another handicap.
Queen's Vase – Namibian (103). A cracking duel between the winner and Solar Sky (102) with Namibian showing great battling qualities to get back up after being headed. For the last three days I was accompanied by Greg Carpenter the Head of Handicapping of Racing Victoria and it would be no surprise to see Namibian run in the Melbourne Cup one day.
Hardwicke – Await The Dawn (122). Another horse I fought strongly for at last year International Rankings Conference in Hong Kong, sadly this time without success. I had wanted him to be 122 for his demolition of the field in the Kilternan Stakes in September but was outvoted and he received 120. After another stunner in the Huxley at Chester I went 122 again only for all of the other International Handicappers to stick with 120! Surely after Saturday they would come round to my way of thinking so yet again I went with 122. So far only two others have put a figure on our system and one is 121 and the other is 120. In 2006 Maraahel won the Hardwicke and performed to 120. Worthy as Maraahel was I am sure Await The Dawn is at least two pounds his superior.
 Golden Jubilee – Society Rock (118). By now the effects of the rain on the ground and the number of races run had changed the place to be on the straight course and the first two were drawn in single figures. The winner's performance figure makes him an average winner of the race over the last 6 years.
Duke Of Edinburgh – Fox Hunt (106). A fascinating example of when a change of headgear can bring about improvement in a horse. I was at Hamilton in May when Fox Hunt finished fourth in a smart handicap wearing blinkers. He was slightly hampered and not beaten far so I left him on 95. In his next run at Epsom the blinkers were replaced by a visor and he won by under a length in a good finish and went up 4lbs. Still in a visor and from stall 21 on Saturday he has won again and was eased slightly in the last 50 yards so I called the winning margin 3.25 lengths which is 5lbs over 1.5 miles. As the second went up 2lbs. for beating the consistent Averoes by a length, my calculation was 99 +2 +5 = 106.
So for those of you who knew the answer to my question of who was the last horse before Canford Cliffs to win three different races at Royal Ascot in successive years, who did it before him? Reply to blogs@britishhorseracing.com
SOME POST NATIONAL THOUGHTS
20th April 2011
Over the last two Saturdays I have been lucky enough to attend both the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr and the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree. Both were blessed with good weather and excellently prepared ground. The main talking point at Ayr from a handicapping point of view was that only 7 of the 28 runners were in the handicap.
This was caused by the presence of Neptune Collonges in the race. If he hadn't been declared the weights would have gone up 15lbs and 15 more horses would have been brought into the handicap. As it happens it looked a pretty good finish with less than a length separating the first three finishers after over 4 miles.
 In fact I was flattered by the proximity of Merigo (who I dropped a pound from 142-141) and Always Right (142-141) to the winner as Beshabar (146-150) idled noticeably in the final 100 yards. It is often tricky assessing races when the placed horses are out of the handicap but in this instance I did not want to put Beshabar above Chicago Grey (151-151) his conqueror at Cheltenham as Gordon Elliott's horse had blatantly not performed at Ayr and was reported by his jockey as having run flat.
Merigo has run better than when winning the race last year, while Always Right has been progressive this year and should now be high enough to get a run in next year's John Smith's Grand National.
Last week at Aintree we were treated to a spectacular display of jumping by Ballabriggs (150-160). Anyone seeing him for the first time in the parade ring before the race must have thought him to be an ideal Aintree type. So it proved in the race, as he was always travelling well and despite one error at Valentine's Brook he was too strong in the finish for Oscar Time (145-151) who was a gallant second with Don't Push It third and State Of Play fourth. Who was the last horse to be placed in three consecutive Grand Nationals?
Ballabriggs became the third consecutive winner of the race to carry at least 11 stones to victory. Perhaps at last we have put to bed the old chestnut that horses carrying more than 10st.13lbs. cannot win the race, especially as 4 of the last 7 winners have now done so. Ballabriggs was rated 150 after his win in the 2010 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap at Cheltenham. Connections then decided to run him over hurdles until I had done the weights for this year's National. Some members of the press have written that this was done to protect his handicap mark but they obviously don't realise that from 3 years ago I can take hurdle form into consideration when giving chase ratings.
 Going into the two novice hurdle races at Wincanton and Ayr that he won in January he was rated 140 as a hurdler and my colleague Martin Greenwood assessed that he did not improve on that level to win them. It was therefore impossible for me to change his chase rating. However had he done so I could have upped his weight for the Grand National. It is therefore a risky game but in this case played brilliantly by Donald McCain.
Oscar Time got his rating of 145 from the Irish Grand National run at Easter in 2010 when he gave 10lbs to Bluesea Cracker and was beaten 4.5 lengths. At Aintree I gave Oscar Time a 5lbs pull for that defeat and he turned the form around by over 100 lengths with the mare showing that she needs more give in the ground to give her best.
I was pleased with the runs of Don't Push It (160-160) and State Of Play (142-140). Last year Don't Push It gave State Of Play 8lbs. and beat him 25 lengths. This year he gave him 18lbs. and beat him by 2 lengths thus producing a 23 length turnaround for 10lbs. I would have liked to have given State Of Play another pound when I did the weights but was worried (needlessly as it turned out) that he might not have got a run. This is an example of handicapping bringing two consistent (at Aintree) performers closer together. They were just unlucky to come up against two improvers.
About three years ago the BHA Handicappers offered to provide our ratings free to all racecourses as a service to their customers. Just over 30 of the courses took up the offer (why not all of them?) and they have been well received. There were 13 non handicaps at Aintree over the three days and this is how our top rated horses fared in those races:
| Race |
Horse |
Rating |
Position |
Price |
| Liverpool Hurdle |
Big Buck's |
174 |
1st |
4/6 |
| Anniversary Hurdle |
Zarkandar |
151 |
1st |
4/6 |
| Totesport Bowl |
Denman |
177 |
5th |
|
| Foxhunters |
Baby Run |
136 |
1st |
3/1 |
| Manifesto Hurdle |
Medermit |
155 |
2nd |
|
|
Wishfull Thinking |
155 |
1st |
9/4 |
| Top Novice Hurdle |
Topolski |
145 |
1st |
11/2 |
| Mildmay Chase |
Quito De La Roque |
152 |
1st |
11/2 |
| Melling Chase |
Master Minded |
172 |
1st |
11/2 |
| Sefton Hurdle |
Sparky May |
148 |
3rd |
|
| Mersey Hurdle |
Cue Card |
154 |
2nd |
|
| Maghull Chase |
Finian's Rainbow |
157 |
1st |
10/11 |
| Aintree Hurdle |
Binocular |
171 |
4th |
|
| Champion Bumper |
Montbazon |
129 |
2nd |
|
If you had attended all three days and bought the race card, a £100 level stake on the BHA top rated horse would have brought you a profit of £1850! Imagine that. Three days of stunning racing watching the best jumpers in the world at an iconic course in beautiful weather and you go home with a profit. Not to mention the opportunity to see 30,000 scantily clad Liverpool girls in their finery. It was certainly a lot easier to find the winners of the non handicaps by using our ratings rather than puzzling out the handicaps as the shortest price of the 7 handicap winners was 14/1.
POST CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BLOG 2011
22nd March 2011
Here are my thoughts on the events of last week. Each horse mentioned has its old and new ratings in brackets.
STEWART FAMILY SPINAL RESEARCH HANDICAP
Bensalem (143-152) achieved the win he looked as if he might have achieved in last year’s contest when he fell when going well. The tough and consistent Carole’s Legacy (146-153) finished a close second but disappointingly there was 11 lengths back to the third horse hence the high rise for the second.
 GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP
My best finish of the week with just under 4 lengths separating the first five finishers. Encouragingly the French horse Quezac De La Roque (137-136) was competitive and horses from three different nations were involved in the finish. Sizing Australia (140-145) prevailed from old favourite Garde Champetre (157-159) and last year’s winner A New Story (141-142). Maljimar (134-135) was fourth despite suffering a cut leg.
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
I based the race around the winner Chicago Grey (151-151) and the third horse Be There In Five (138-138) who were separated by 12.5 lengths which I called thirteen pounds. The second horse Beshabar (138-146) looks a decent staying handicap chaser in the making. Chicago Grey’s rating is the highest I have ever given to the winner of this race which has a good record of finding winners of big races.
RSA NOVICE CHASE
A tight finish and just a shame it wasn’t a handicap. Noel O’Brien the Irish Handicapper and I have taken a low view of the race with Bostons Angel (146-152) improving a little to squeeze home from Jessies Dream (150-151) who surely would have won if he hadn’t pulled so hard early in the race and hung across the track in the finish. The best of the British was Wayward Prince (147-150) who looks a thorough stayer. Bostons Angel is the lowest rated winner of the race since Trabolgan (151) in 2005. Perhaps like him, Bostons Angel will win a Hennessy in November.
FULKE WALWYN/KIM MUIR HANDICAP
This was a complete embarrassment from a Handicapping point of view. Junior (134-153) waltzed away with the race. Whenever this happens the first thing you do is look to see if you could/should have had the winner higher. I suppose on reflection I could have taken his second over hurdles into consideration and put him up a little but that would have been harsh as in his previous race he had been beaten 9 lengths for me and I had left him on 134. Anyway a couple of pounds would have made no difference to the result and you have to put it down to excellent training. If he gets a run in the John Smith’s Grand National (possible but unlikely and we will know his chances after today’s forfeit stage) he will be 19lbs. well in.
TOTESPORT GOLD CUP
A stunning spectacle and great to see the King George winner, Long Run (179-182) confirm his status as the best jumper in the world this year. I have based the race around Midnight Chase (163-163) beaten 19 lengths who has won four handicaps at Cheltenham so it seems reasonable to assume he has run to his rating. Denman (179-177) must have come close to his Hennessy third, while Kauto Star (174-173) has put up his best performance since the 2009 King George. What A Friend (159-171) has always looked in need of decent ground and some form of headgear and would now be 15lbs. well in for the John Smith’s Grand National where he is due to run off 156. Is Paul Nicholls the only trainer to have saddled three of the first four finishers in the race on three occasions?
CHRISTIE’S FOXHUNTER
It was a great pity that Baby Run (136-136) did not complete as he looked almost certain to be the winner. Zemsky (117-134) appears to be a slightly below average winner of the race. I was particularly pleased by the runs of the second and third horses, Mid Div And Creep and Oscar Delta. For this race I am allowed to allocate a wild card for horses that have not qualified for a BHA rating or whose rating is not high enough. I could not split these two as there were no form lines that I could find linking British and Irish point to point form. I therefore made them my joint wild card. It was great to see them run so well and shows the system is working. However the connections of a number of horses were disappointed not to get allocated the wild card so the solution is obvious, run in Hunter chases next season.
WEIGHTS CARRIED TO WIN ALL JUMP HANDICAPS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2011
1st March 2011
The terrific victory of Silver By Nature carrying top weight in the Totesport.com Grand National Trial at Haydock 10 days ago got me thinking about the success rates of top weights in jump handicaps generally. Anecdotally I had felt that they had done rather well so far this year but surely in the mud of January and February their overall success rate must have suffered .
The Giant Bolster in the first open novice chase handicap of the season, Ashkazar at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, Mille Chief at Sandown, Polyfast at Kempton,Hey Big Spender at Warwick off 150 sprang quickly to mind but what was the big picture?
I decided to do some research on the successes of all weights carried in jump handicaps so far this year. I expected top weights to come out best as they always do BUT I was not prepared for the stunning numbers that they have won in our handicaps. As you can see from the table below, top weights have won 65 of 374 handicaps so far this year, more than three times the number of any other weight.
| Weight | Wins |
| 12-04 | 1 |
| 12-01 | 1 |
| 12-00 | 1 |
| 11-12 | 62 |
| 11-11 | 18 |
| 11-10 | 19 |
| 11-09 | 21 |
| 11-08 | 16 |
| 11-07 | 21 |
| 11-06 | 8 |
| 11-05 | 9 |
| 11-04 | 21 |
| 11-03 | 16 |
| 11-02 | 18 |
| 11-01 | 17 |
| 11-00 | 14 |
| 10-13 | 11 |
| 10-12 | 6 |
| 10-11 | 16 |
| 10-10 | 9 |
| 10-09 | 9 |
| 10-08 | 11 |
| 10-07 | 8 |
| 10-06 | 4 |
| 10-05 | 9 |
| 10-04 | 2 |
| 10-03 | 6 +1 (out of the handicap) |
| 10-02 | 5 + 2 (ooh) |
| 10-01 | 2 |
| 10-00 | 5 +5 (ooh) |
| TOTAL | 374 |
I finished this research just as Monday’s Racing Post told me that Neptune Collonges had been scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National because “he’s got too much weight”. The article claimed that it left Don’t Push It on top weight of 11st. 12lbs which was inaccurate as we dropped the top weight to 11st. 10lbs. in 2010.
Perhaps if I had sent these figures to the connections of Neptune Collonges they might have had second thoughts. Instead of carrying 11st. 10lbs. and giving weight to inferior horses at Aintree, they have decided to carry exactly the same weight in the Gold Cup against superior horses. Interesting!
I will probably be called a classic “after timer” by pointing out to punters that a £10 level stake on all top weights in our handicaps in the first two months of 2011 would have brought a profit of well over £1000! Please don’t follow this plan in March or in January and February of next year, it carries a BHA wealth warning. It may be a one off.
Perhaps somebody out there will have a good reason for their amazing success this winter at a time when you might have thought carrying all that weight in heavy ground would be particularly tricky. Perhaps it is just that on deep ground the class of the animal is more important than the weight carried or perhaps this year has just been a fluke.
It has certainly made getting close finishes in my chase handicaps very difficult to achieve and professionally I am looking forward to some better ground for the high profile Cheltenham handicaps. As a result I was dreading the 6 runner, 29 furlong handicap chase at Warwick last Friday on ground that was heavy (soft in places).
Luckily the jockeys helped my professional pride and went a really sensible place so that despite one of the field who was going well taking an unlucky fall, four of the horses took the last fence in a line. The horse that finished fourth dropped away but that was fine as he was 5lbs. out of the handicap and the other three fought out a thrilling finish separated by only half a length and three quarters of a length.
My fellow officials in the weighing room were kind enough to compliment me on a job well done for once so imagine my surprise when the trainer of the second that had won two of his last three handicaps and been third in the other one, accused me of giving his horse too much weight and not giving him a chance of winning. I pointed out that he was running on the same mark as his previous race where he was happy to run from a pound out of the handicap and he was only 0.125 of a second behind in this race at Warwick over 3m.5f.
However he was not for congratulating me on the finish and further stated that I had been fooled into giving the winner too little weight. I had to admit that the winner had been impossible to assess from his last run which was the void race at Carlisle where he had unseated at the first fence!
NEPTUNE'S DILEMMA
1st February 2011
My big race last weekend was the Argento Cotswold Chase the Grade 2 from Cheltenham. Is there anyone else apart from me who thought that the winner, Neptune Collonges screamed John Smith’s Grand National at them? A foot perfect round of jumping and the further he went the better he went.
It was a very easy race to rate. Tidal Bay ran to 166 when chasing home Imperial Commander at Haydock and I took the view that he had performed to the same level again. As a result Neptune Collonges is now on 168 as I assessed the 1.25 lengths to be worth 2lbs.
In May 2009 he was rated 170 in the end of season Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications. After his near 18 month absence I dropped him 6lbs. before the Hennessy in November. Our experience tells us that with an old(ish) horse that has been off with an injury if we drop them at about 4lbs. per year then they are usually competitive as a result. In effect all I have done is take back the 6lbs. I gave him for absence now he has proven himself good enough to win a Grade 2.
The John Smith’s Grand National entries come to me this afternoon (Tuesday) and it is one of the most exciting days of my year. I have until about 4pm on the 14th February to complete my weights, in other words 14 working days. It will be an incredibly busy time as we have one of my chase Handicappers on holiday so I will be picking up quite a few of his races as well as my normal load of the 3 mile + chasers.
What will the 6lbs. rise mean for Neptune Collonges for Aintree? Well you will have to wait a fortnight to find out and until I see the entries I cannot tell for sure. However I would be surprised if it as much as 6lbs. in the John Smith’s Grand National compared with what weight he would have had if he hadn’t run on Saturday.
Connections will have a difficult choice to make. Does he run against superior horses in the Gold Cup at level weights when in a handicap he would be receiving lumps of weight from the likes of Imperial Commander, Denman, Long Run and Kauto Star? Or does he give weight to inferior horses in the Grand National. He needed to run to 170 to finish fourth in the 2009 Gold Cup. He will need to run at least as well in 2011 to achieve the same placing.
Tidal Bay, kidded along beautifully by Brian Hughes is a good yardstick even though you always feel there is potentially more there. I would love to see him in the Bet365 Handicap at Sandown in April. The finishing hill would be right up his street.
What of Punchestowns? On my ratings I thought he would finish third on Saturday and that is where he finished, but it was still disappointing as I have him running to 141 which is 17lbs. below what he achieved when he was just touched off by Pride Of Dulcote at Newbury. As he is still on a rating of 158 I wonder if the Racing Post Chase might be an interesting pre Cheltenham race for him. High weights have a good record in the race.
Last week the BHA Chief vet Tim Morris told me that he had been having discussions with trainers and jockeys about pulling up tired horses in handicap chases. Apparently a number said to him that if they did they would not be dropped by the Handicapper.
As we all know there are myths, misconceptions and downright untruths spouted about what we do. I checked what I had done last week to horses that had been pulled up in my handicaps. Of the 10 that had pulled up 9 were dropped. Perhaps Tim was just statistically unlucky with the trainers and jockeys he spoke to as he must have picked the wrong 10%!
I am a big fan of Times journalist Alan Lee, but I cannot let pass something he wrote on Saturday about handicapping. He said, “Paul Nicholls’ conviction that most of his horses are harshly handicapped was borne out last Saturday when he was beaten by two of his former inmates, both reassessed dramatically downwards since leaving him”.
The two horses concerned were Cornish Sett and Tatenen. Let us examine the facts. Cornish Sett was rated 129 when he left Paul Nicholls to be trained by Caroline Keevil. After three runs for her he had dropped 3lbs. when he won off 126 at Wincanton. Wow 3lbs. in three runs = “reassesed dramatically downwards”.
Tatenen was rated 143 when he left Ditcheat and after three runs for Richard Rowe he won off 137 at Ascot. So three runs for another trainer and dropped 6lbs. Is that “reassessed dramatically downwards”? What must Paul and Alan make of Earth Planet who I have dropped 15lbs from 136 to 121 for his last three runs? Now he really has been reassessed dramatically downwards and is trained by... the champion trainer.
MY WEEK
19th January 2011
I have had a very busy week starting with going to Chepstow for the Coral Welsh National. As the ground was soft I feared the field would finish stretched all over Monmouthshire but fortunately the jockeys went a sensible pace and I ended up not looking too silly.
Synchronised was a good winner and I put him up 9lbs to 159. It is good for racing when a horse wins one of our top handicaps off a high rating and he has now won two Nationals, the other being the Midlands version at Uttoxeter back in March. The challenge now is to go and win the John Smith’s Grand National in April. If the ground is soft he will have a chance. The three placed horses all ran with credit but on their present ratings of 136, 133 and 133 will struggle to get a run at Aintree.
Sunday as usual was a work morning until about midday. I reassessed the Fontwell winner Abbey Dore who had won easily on the previous Friday. I put him up 15lbs. He has now won four of his last five races off marks of 64, 69, 78 and 86. As a result he has risen by 37lbs. It just shows what horses can do when they hit form.
The afternoon was spent walking in the Cotswold Hills. Like many of the horses I assess, my weight has increased rapidly in the last year so I am trying to increase the amount of exercise I take and reduce the amount of food I eat. No chocolate at all til the Festival. My starting weight was 15st. 12lbs on Monday 8th January so I will keep you informed of any reductions!
Monday is always the Handicappers' busiest days of the week. Our deadline to get everything reassessed from the previous week is 7am on Tuesday so realistically everything has to be completed by close of play on Monday which is usually about 8pm.
Tuesday saw me on the 6.02 train from Honeybourne to London for the announcement of the 2010 World Thoroughbred Rankings at a press conference at the BHA office in London. The 2010 flat season was a hugely successful one for British horses. We had more horses (19) rated at 120+ than any other country in the world and this was the highest number that we have had this century.
Of course Harbinger was rated 135 at our meeting in Hong Kong in December and was therefore the best horse in the world. Since the classifications started in 1977 the only four year old that has ever been higher was Alleged back in 1978. Workforce was published on 128 making him the joint highest 3 year old in the world with the French miler Makfi. This is the first time since 1994 that the top 3 and 4 year old have both been trained in Britain. Email me if you think you know who those two horses were.
For the fourth year in a row the Epsom Derby produced the highest rated 3 year old in the world. Don’t believe the doubters who say it is run on the wrong track at the wrong time of the year. It is still the supreme test of a staying three year old as Authorized, New Approach, Sea The Stars and now Workforce have shown.
Tuesday afternoon saw the start of our Handicappers’ AGM. That is a bit of a misnomer as we usually all meet up two or three times a year. However it is a time when we thrash out policy and methodology and is usually an opportunity for lively debate. In the evening we had a leaving party for our staying Handicapper, Neil Young, who after 15 years producing great finishes in the Chester Cup, the Northumberland Plate and the Ebor is off to pursue a career in film which is his hobby, not as an actor but as a critic.
Wednesday saw day 2 of our AGM and one of the tasks was for us all to handicap a race I had chosen. It is important that we have consistency among the team and this is an opportunity to achieve that. The race was an interesting one as the winner Ballabriggs had not run to his rating to win so a lively debate ensued about whether we should drop a horse for winning or not. The answer was “yes, in certain circumstances”. We also had meetings about our role in the integrity side of racing and looked at the levels of success of French bred and Irish trained horses.
Thursday and Friday were days in my office at home as by then the week’s results were starting to pile up and I had over 100 e mails to read and 9 phone messages to answer along with a fair amount of post. I did find time to manage 15 minutes each day on our exercise bike and set a new house record of 7.02kms. on Friday.
Of course Saturday meant King George day at Kempton and a brilliant 9 race card put on by the BHA Race Planning team, the racecourse and the sponsors William Hill. I had thought and hoped that Kauto Star would win but he never raced with his usual sparkle behind the new kid on the block, Long Run.
Last season the second season Novices disappointed when they took on the big 3 of Kauto, Denman and the Commander so it was great to see another champion emerge. My problem was how to rate the winner. If I went through Riverside Theatre (a Kempton specialist) he would be on 172 which my gut feeling told me was a little low but if I based the race through Nacarat, (another Kempton specialist) he would be on 182 which seemed perhaps too high at this stage when Kauto Star had never put in a performance in the 180’s until much later in his career.
On Sunday I looked back at previous King George winners and felt that Long Run’s performance was similar to the style which First Gold showed in winning in 2000. He beat Bellator (157) by 21 lengths and I gave him 178. Bellator was the Nacarat of his time a solid mid to high 150’s horse who was very consistent and who, like Nacarat, had good handicap form and was often placed in conditions races.
As Long Run had beaten Nacarat (158) by further than First Gold had beaten Bellator, I decided to give Long Run 179. A time comparison with the three mile handicap won by Rear Gunner later on the card came very close to this figure also. I now decided to drop Kauto Star. As Denman, Master Minded and Twist Magic have all put up performances at 175+ this season and it is now 13 months since Kauto Star’s win at Kempton, I have dropped him to 174.
It is very important that connections of all jumpers believe that if they put their horse in a handicap he would have a chance of winning and I truly believe that if they were tempted (unlikely I know), Kauto Star would be competitive off 174 in a handicap.
Finally to Monday when it was time to look at the Grade 3 Classic at Warwick. West End Rocker looks to be an improver now his problems appear behind him and he virtually guaranteed himself a place in the John Smith’s Grand National winning off 133 and is now on 141.
I can’t finish without commenting on trainer James Ewart’s novel system of handicapping mentioned in today’s Racing Post. He said “I think the handicapper has been very harsh on him (Sa Suffit), he’s rated above Comply Or Die and Hello Bud, but he’s only run 14 times.” So we should rate horses on number of runs now? Poor old Quixall Crosset would have had to give weight to Kauto Star using that system.
Sa Suffit is on 149 having won off 144 by 9 lengths on his penultimate handicap start. He has run in five handicaps, winning twice, and finishing second in another. In his last run he pulled up over 3 miles (first time over the trip) on good ground and the trainer says “he needs give in the ground” Look him up and let me know if you think we have been too harsh on him.
Meanwhile I am down to 15st.08lbs. a loss of 4lbs. in two weeks but not yet on a winning weight.
CHRISTMAS BLOG
22nd December 2010
I am writing this looking out from my office window at a foot of snow in the surrounding fields. We wouldn’t race here in Worcestershire until February by the look of it but I am optimistic that Barney Clifford and his team at Kempton will work a miracle and get Kempton on for Boxing Day.
The two races I am most looking forward to are inevitably the William Hill King George VI Chase but also the Williamhill.Com Feltham Novices’ Chase which commemorates Nigel Clark who brilliantly chaired a number of committees that I attended.
Can Kauto Star make it 5 wins in the King George? Of course he can according to our ratings, but unfortunately races are not won on ratings they are won on the track with a number of fences in the way. Kauto Star is currently rated 190 and has 22lbs. in hand of the best of his opponents on Boxing Day.
Even if he were to run only at the level of his reappearance run (168) at Down Royal six weeks ago he would dead heat with Albertas Run (168) assuming Jonjo’s horse could run to his absolute best so far.
Who else is there to challenge him? There are two very interesting horses bracketed together on 167, Forpadydeplasterer and The Nightingale. “Pady” has been so consistent at around 2 miles finishing second in 7 consecutive races. He will almost certainly need a performance in the 170’s to win on Boxing Day and then Kauto Star will have to have had an off day. It will be fascinating to see if the increase in distance to 3 miles enables Forpadydeplasterer to improve his performance figure.
Perhaps more likely would be an improved run from The Nightingale. His trainer was “surprised” when I raised him to 167 after his win in Ireland but the form looks solid as Roberto Goldback who The Nightingale thrashed by 11 lengths was only just beaten by Tranquil Sea last week at Fairyhouse.
Rated 166 is Burton Port who put up an improved performance when just beaten at Newbury and Long Run (162) who also put up his best performance at Cheltenham. Either of them could progress over the magic 170 mark which will almost certainly be needed to win the race.
The Feltham looks likely to be a cracker with some seven novices already rated above 140 and only 8lbs. between them. As you would expect at this stage of the season our ratings for the Novices are very fluid but at present we have;
Jessies Dream 149
Aiteen Thirtythree 148
Watamu Bay 147
Golan Way 146
Loosen My Load 146
Hell’s Bay 143
Master Of The Hall 141
Excited? Yes we are too. Let’s hope it takes place.
OUT OF THE HANDICAP
1st December 2010
What a shame. Just like last year the weather appears to be doing its best to decimate the jump season just when it is getting everyone very excited.
My first Hennessy Gold Cup was in 1998 and for ten years they were won by a second season chaser. Then in 2008 and 2009 came Madison Du Berlais and Denman. This year the race has reverted to the pattern of previous years with the victory of Diamond Harry who I have moved from 156, the mark he ran off, to 168. Diamond Harry will now only need to improve by just a few pounds to have a decent chance in an average Gold Cup. Similarly, Burton Port has now gone from 157 to 166 for his gallant second. Do not rule him out of running into at least a place in the 2011 Gold Cup.
Of course it does not look like being an average Gold Cup. So far this year the established big 3 have all run very encouraging races on their comebacks. First of all Kauto Star performed to 168 in a workmanlike display in Ireland. Then Imperial Commander was more impressive in winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock performing to a level of 170 in beating Tidal Bay (166) who for once put his best foot forward. Denman however performed to 177 in finishing third on Saturday, the third occasion he has carried top weight in the race. The quality of the performance is best illustrated by the fact that the best performance the triple Gold Cup winner, Best Mate, ever put up was 175. Stunning.
Let’s hope that the weather relents so that the preparations for the King George and the big race itself are not affected. I have dropped Denman to a rating of 179 just in case he is put in a handicap. He has not performed to 182 since last year’s Hennessy and deserves a drop now. I also dropped The Tother One from 156 to 152. He ran creditably in fourth on Saturday but has never won a handicap so I am trying to encourage connections to believe he has a chance if he runs in one. Niche Market, I dropped from 156 to 149 which would give him a 19lbs. pull with Diamond Harry if they were to meet in a handicap.
Although the connections of many of the horses from Saturday are saying that they do not have handicaps as their target at present, who knows how that might change because of the weather and we have to be ready with competitive handicap marks. Carruthers also has never won a handicap so he has been dropped from 156 to 148. Anyone fancy him in a good handicap off that mark now? Taranis is down from 160 to 153, Weird Al from 156 to 152 and Barbers Shop from 156 to 148. Many of the above have been running with great credit in Grade 1 races but without success. It is my job now that they have failed in a handicap to get them competitive in their next one.
Notice how I say they have all been dropped from 156, even though that may not have been their official rating before the race. However as soon as a trainer decides to run from out of the handicap, that becomes a horse’s new mark, however temporary, and therefore my starting position when I am reassessing the horses. Therefore with Burton Port who was on 152 before the race, his trainer put him up 4lbs. out of the handicap, his jockey another pound with overweight and me another 9lbs. because of his excellent second place. For me he would still be interesting off 168 carrying top weight in a handicap so it will be fascinating to see which direction his connections take him. They now know what I knew last year that they have a good horse.
The issue of horses being out of the handicap cropped up a few weeks ago when Belon Gale won a handicap at Hexham carrying top weight off a rating of 132 after an absence of nearly a year. In the paper the following day his trainer was quoted as saying that he didn’t think he could win as “he had been crucified by the Handicapper”. What had actually happened was that last year Belon Gale finished second at Kelso beaten a neck by Money Trix off 132 but he was 11lbs. out of the handicap. My colleague Stephen Hindle assessed that race and quite rightly his starting point was the mark the trainer had run him off in that race which was 132. He left him on that rating even when Money Trix went to Ireland and ran well behind What A Friend and was put up for doing so.
The trainer believed we had “crucified” his horse for asking him to run off the same mark that he had asked him to run off in his previous race when we had wanted him to be 11lbs. lower. Perhaps he should have said, “I didn’t think he could win because he had been crucified by his trainer”!
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